EQL13 - quarter-final predictions
It's play-off time - yeah! Who's going to be sliding through the glory hole towards a semi, and who's going to be taking a quarter-pounding? I'm going to discuss these very questions in this blog...
Division 1
Overview
There has been some controversy over the end of the regular season, with a flurry of activity from TeamKillers (TKs) seeing them steal the last play-off spot from Slackers II (SR2). I'm not going to debate the rights and wrongs of what happened, but to me it's great that the games got played and the team who performed best according to EQL's merit system made it to the play-offs. The merit system in itself needs review, however. TKs and SR2 played 14 matches, but TKs only won 2 compared to SR2's 4. If clans earned 4 points for a match win, rather than 3, this would give more incentive and reward for winning matches rather than just turning up and maybe squeezing out a 2-1 defeat. Under this system, SR2 would have finished 4 points ahead of TKs, which certainly seems more just when you consider the number of match wins for each team and that SR2 beat TKs twice in the regular season.
Anyway, that is something for the over-worked EQL crew to discuss before season 14. Meanwhile in season 13, it's hard to see anything other than a victory for Slackers (SR). They have dominated division 1 this season and have only lost one map, and it is difficult to see them dropping many maps during the playoffs if they keep their activity up. I am going make a bold prediction now: Slackers to win the play-offs without losing a map. There, I said it.
Quarter-finals
Suddendeath (SD) vs TeamKillers (TKs)
SD won the regular season games 2-0 and 2-1, with TKs snatching a DM3 and almost winning E1M2 in the second encounter. DM2 was a pretty comfortable win both times for SD, so bps & co should have no trouble taking that home here. TKs may be able to sneak a map, but I'd be surprised if they got more than one.
Prediction: 3-0 to SD
CCCP vs Fusion (F)
Both regular season games ended up in narrow 2-1 wins for F, so this one is difficult to call. Both teams won an E1M2 in those games by 4 frags or fewer - choosing the winner of that one is something of a coinflip! F should be able to take home DM3, and I would expect them to pick that twice in a best of 5 match-up. If F can get their strongest line-up out, I think they will just sneak this one and get into the semis. This is the game to watch!
Prediction: 3-2 to F
Division 2
Bad luck troopers (BLT) vs O Clan (O)
Fun fact - by combining these clans' abbreviations you can spell "BOLT". And I tip the Bacon Sandwich Brigade from Finland to BOLT into the semi-finals without too many alarms here. BLT have been strong in the regular season whilst O have played well without winning many games.
Prediction: 3-0 to BLT
Lastentarha (KOFF) vs Chosen (Csn)
Likewise, it's tough to see anything but a 3-0 to the favourites here. Scenic and his boys lost just one match in the regular season, and that was on the day that Scenic decided to stay in the sauna rather than play Quake. In the regular season, KOFF picked up a fairly comfortable 2-0 win.
Dinosaurs & Noobs (D&N) vs WarPigs (WP)
This is a really close one to call. In the regular season, WP picked up DM2 by a safe margin, whilst D&N won the other 2 maps by only 4 frags. It's safe to say therefore, that this one can go either way. Neither clan has been super-active of late (24 & 29 rounds of 4on4 in the last month respectively), either.
Prediction: 3-2 to D&N... or to WP... or it could be 3-0 with all 3 maps having frag differences of 1-2 frags... I really don't know
Magnum 44 (M44) vs Fraggers United (FU)
FU have been marginally more active in the last month, with 46 maps played compared to M44's 28. M44 won the regular season game 2-1 against a strong FU team and I'd tip them to take this one home 3-2, winning DM2 twice and DM3.
Prediction: 3-2 to M44
Division 3
Mob of Oddballs (MOFO) vs Aut Vincere Aut Mori (VM)
On paper, this is a 3-0 win to MOFO. MOFO have been very active with 43 maps in the last month, but VM shame even them with their recent record - 79 maps in the last month! This has been reflected by a big improvement in their teamplay, especially on E1M2 and DM2, and MOFO should not expect an easy ride. That said, if MOFO get their best team out then they should have too much for the improving Russians.
Prediction: 3-1 to MOFO
Osams (OS) vs Machinery (M)
We won this won 2-0 in the regular season and it was pretty comfortable. That doesn't tell us much though, because both teams were without a key player - Steppa for us and Sniegowy for M. We have only played 21 maps in the last month, but M have only played 11. If both teams get their best line-ups out, this will be a corker. M will probably take DM2, while I am confident that we are a better E1M2 team. Our DM3 game has been strong lately, so I think we should just shade this match. I wouldn't want to put any money on it, however. Machinery are certainly good enough to win this play-off if they can get over the first hurdle.
Prediction: 3-2 to Osams
Boomstick Ownators (BO) vs Paras
Pretty simple one - if Paras field Feari, Final, Netspider and Panjabi, they will win this one, probably 3-0. With that line-up they are as good as the best teams in the division. Stripped of one or two of those players, they fall into the middle of the pack and BO will fancy their chances of getting to the next stage. BO won in the regular season when Paras didn't field their tip-top team for that game.
Prediction: 3-0 to Paras if they get their best line-up out... otherwise 3-1 to BO
In A Blaze (ABLZ) vs Oddballs (Odd)
Odd have been very active lately and have improved a lot throughout the season. Pektopah and Muffin are their key players and with conditions in their favour, they could be enough to win this game. They are strong on E1M2, but so are ABLZ, unfortunately. The Fins won 2-1 in the regular season, but Odd have improved a lot since then. I fancy MOFO Junior to take this one in a tight five-mapper.
Prediction: 3-2 to Odd